spell failures

Not recently, but I used to have similar problems to make me think the random number generator was not working correctly.

I had some very low probability fails.  Like asteroid hitting the earth and destroying all complex life probabilities.

Remember that these events are independent (probabilistically speaking) from each other.  That is, if odds are 50-50, failure in one attempt does not mean that odds shift to greater than 50% entering the next attempt. 

When you cast against an enemy village, if wizard strength, the number of runes in that village spent on wiz towers, are greater than the number of runes spent in your village on wiz towers, then you have a decreased % chance of success.  I assume the relationship is linear, correct?  (i.e. 2 runes in casting town vs 1 rune in castee town = 66% chance of success beyond base chance, or something along those lines)

So, what I'm wondering is if when you are trying to cast a spell "against" your own town, if something in the rune count is not being done properly.  If it's like I described, you should succeed 50% of the time when casting against yourself (i.e. 2 runes vs 2 runes = 50%)

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Edit: Grammar

OK, something is not making sense to me.  My outpost casting Rain1 on itself is an 80% probability.  My outpost casting Rain1 on my main is a 90% probability

I don't think that's an appropriate test for two reasons
1) each cast is an independent event.  Here's an example, the odds of rolling 2 sixes in dice is 11/36, right?   But that is considering that you are rolling together and view them together.  However, the odds of rolling a six the 1st time is 1/6 while the odds of rolling another six with the 2nd roll is also 1/6.  But yes, together it is 11/36.
2) the variable being generated follows the uniform distribution
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Edit: typo

Edit2: To clarify: the odds of success/failure are always the same, regardless of what has happened on the cast before

Only if you expect the same thing on each throw, or want a certain sequence.  Only then can you look at them as a combined system.

If you are wanting to see the odds of throw a 2... its always 1/6 chance.

Chaos, because they are independent events (always 1/6), the form is: 1/6+1/6*5/6 = 11/36.  You are not including the 5 out of 6 times where the first roll is not a 6

It is a good game when you can argue probability theory
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Edit: Clarification

If you want to know the probability of one specific sequence you can look at the sequence on the whole.  ie
"What is the chance of getting one 2 in 2 throws?"

would be (1/6)(5/6)+(5/6)(1/6)
Chance of (2, anything else) plus the chance of (anything else, 2)

Meanwhile the question "What is the chance of getting a 2 on the second throw?"
Is simply (1/6) as the first throw has no impact on the outcome of the second throw.

edit:
This is a useful read for calculating probability of multiple attempts
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_p … l_equation

BTW, just happened again... 4500 gems for 1 spell on a net worth of 6300 is pretty much